Groundhogs Day 2.0: more winter, maybe a 100 years worth says “new” science

Written by admin on February 8th, 2008 in devices and gadgets.

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Did you miss Groundhogs Day too? Seems it was last week, where men oddly dressed in stovepipe hats, no double leftovers from their Honest Abe Halloween costumes, pull a drugged up Groundhog out of a fake hole and pronounce more winter. We are a bit beyond this anecdotal method of figuring out the weather. Today we have scientists and politicians and Al Gore convincing everyone about how hot it is getting in here and how we should all undress. Maybe that is a song stuck in my head, but you get the drift.

“Convincing everyone” I said. Almost. Everyone except some guys and gals called Solar Scientists who believe Earths fate is up to the Sun, not us hubristic (which I don’t believe is a word, but go with me) humans who think we control everything. Indeed, these scientists say we could be headed for global cooling. If you were in school prior to the 90s, you feared just two things: the Russians, an ice age and Patrick Swayze movies (ok, that’s three things). Ice age baby.

Solar activity fluctuates in an 11-year cycle. But so far in this cycle, the sun has been disturbingly quiet. The lack of increased activity could signal the beginning of what is known as a Maunder Minimum, an event which occurs every couple of centuries and can last as long as a century.

Such an event occurred in the 17th century. The observation of sunspots showed extraordinarily low levels of magnetism on the sun, with little or no 11-year cycle. This solar hibernation corresponded with a period of bitter cold that began around 1650 and lasted, with intermittent spikes of warming, until 1715. Frigid winters and cold summers during that period led to massive crop failures, famine and death in Northern Europe.

Tapping reports no change in the sun’s magnetic field so far this cycle and warns that if the sun remains quiet for another year or two, it may indicate a repeat of that period of drastic cooling of the Earth, bringing massive snowfall and severe weather to the Northern Hemisphere.

But it is not bad news right, just put on another jacket? Well, no.

“Solar activity has overpowered any effect that CO2 has had before, and it most likely will again,”R. Timothy Patterson, professor of geology and director of the Ottawa-Carleton Geoscience Center of Canada’s Carleton University says. “If we were to have even a medium-sized solar minimum, we could be looking at a lot more bad effects than ‘global warming’ would have had.”

Awesome. Is it too early to hope we can offset global cooling by more global warming? Quick! To the SUVs.

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